If the Democrats Held Winner-Take-All Primaries… Clinton Would be Leading by Over 600

That’s right. Hillary Clinton would be leading by as much as 600*** delegates…

I was trying to figure out who would lead the race if the the democrats had a winner-take-all primary system similar to the Republicans or to how the Electoral College decides elections. So I put together a little chart, with the numbers. If Obama won the state, I gave him all the delegates for the state. If Clinton won the state primary, I gave her all the delegates for the state. I did not count the super-delegates.

The results of a winner take all election:

Clinton Obama
Alabama 0 52
New Hampshire 22 0
Michigan 157 0
Nevada 25 0
South Carolina 0 45
Florida 211 0
Alaska 0 13
Arizona 56 0
Arkansas 35 0
California 370 0
Colorado 0 55
Connecticut 0 48
Delaware 0 15
Georgia 0 87
Idaho 0 18
Illinois 0 153
Kansas 0 32
Massachusetts 93 0
Minnesotta 0 72
Missouri 0 72
New Jersey 107 0
New Mexico 26 0
New York 232 0
North Dakota 0 13
Oklahoma 38 0
Tennessee 68 0
Utah 0 23
Louisiana 0 56
Nebraska 0 24
Washington 0 78
Maine 0 24
DC 0 15
Maryland 0 70
Virginia 0 83
Hawaii 0 20
Wisconsin 0 74
Ohio 162 0
Rhode Island 21 0
Texas 127 0
Vermont 0 15
Wyoming 0 12
Mississippi 0 33
Pennsylvania 187 0
Indiana 72 0
North Carolina 0 115
West Virginia 28 0
Kentucky 51 0
Oregon 0 52
Puerto Rico 55 0
Total Delegates 2143 1369

* For the state of Texas, I only gave Clinton 127 delegates since 67 are decided through caucusing.

** I counted Michigan and Florida in the Hillary Clinton column for 2 reasons:

  1. In Florida, both Obama’s and Clinton’s names were on the ballot. Although neither candidate campaigned in the state, both of the names were on the ballot, and the voters chose Clinton. The voters should not be punished for the mistakes of the party officials.
  2. In Michigan, only Clinton’s name was on the ballot during the primaries. She won the election, but since Obama’s name was not on the ballot it doesn’t hold a lot of weight. However, the Democratic party in Michigan offered the two candidates the chance for a rematch with a new primary. But Senator Obama declined. That’s right. Obama did not want a rematch against Senator Clinton. Historically, Clinton has done better in blue collar states and Michigan would most likely go to Clinton again. He had a chance, but did not take a rematch because this would prove yet again that Obama does not do well in big, blue states.

*** As of 6/2/08 she would have 2143 delegates and would be leading by 774.

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10 thoughts on “If the Democrats Held Winner-Take-All Primaries… Clinton Would be Leading by Over 600

  1. “I get it… Hillary would be the nominee if Democrats just acted like Republicans.” — Jon Stewart

    So true… in so many ways.

    All your arguments are specious and have no basis in reality, especially the laughable description of Mich. & Fl.

    (I’m sure you’ll feel free to censor this post, Billary supporters aren’t known for either fairness or recognition of facts)

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml

  2. If you have a better description of the Michigan and Florida primaries by all means, let me hear it. The fact of the matter is that Obama declined a re-do of the Michigan primary. The Democratic party in Michigan had raised the funds necessary and all he had to do was agree to it. The fact of the matter is that neither candidate has the votes to win the nomination going into the convention. And I’m sick of hearing that she should pull out of the race. If the situation was reversed and Obama was trailing by 100 or so delegates, NO ONE would dare suggest that he should pull out of the race for fear of racist undertones.

  3. You are right. This is how the general election works folks.

    That makes Stewarts joke…a joke.

    Obama is leading because as you point out, our flawed party has a flawed system. And just like Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry, Barack Hussein Obama will be looking for work in December.

  4. If Democrats truly want a Democrat in the White House, they should not be dismissing this data. Bottom line is, in the General Election, it does not matter if you win the popular vote and it does not matter if you win the most states. What matters is if you win 270 or more electoral college votes.

    With the exception of I think only Maine, the electoral college vote is a winner-take-all contest. Truth is, that in the 7 states that have 20+ electoral college votes, in this Democratic Primary, Obama has won only his home state of Illinois. Many of the numerous states he has won at the primary/caucus level are historically “red” states in a General Election. Most polls show a majority of these “red” states will remain so in the fall. I hope the remaining undecided superdelegates take a good hard look at who they think can beat McCain on the electoral college map, and weigh that heavily in their decision.

  5. I agree. I think when it comes down to a Obama vs. McCain race, I think that McCain has a good chance of beating Obama. I think the Republicans have pretty much stayed out of attacking Obama during the primaries as much as possible, because they want him to run against McCain. They know that he doesn’t have what it takes to win in the general election. People forget about the Bradley factor in elections.

    Clinton is way more experienced, way more qualified, and has actually worked all her life to help blacks, minorities and the working class in general. Senator Obama on the other hand, is fairly new in the political process. He used Rev. Wright to get credibility with the black community and when Wright became a liability, he distanced himself from his spiritual leader. Without Wright, Obama was not black enough for the black community.

    (Obama was raised by a white mother, white grandparents and he goes out and writes a book about his African father that abandoned him. Maybe he could have written a book about his wonderful, accomplished, hard-working single mother who actually raised him. Just saying… )

  6. 15 Whitest States in America

    by population, and by who won the primary…

    Maine BARACK

    Vermont BARACK

    West Virginia HILLARY

    New Hampshire HILLARY (BARACK lost by 2.6%)

    Iowa BARACK

    North Dakota BARACK

    Montana

    Kentucky

    Wyoming BARACK

    Idaho BARACK

    South Dakota

    Minnesota BARACK

    Wisconsin BARACK

    Nebraska BARACK

    Indiana HILLARY (BARACK lost by 1.1% to 2%)

  7. I see your point. And most of those whitest states, will be voting for the Republican candidate come election day. Most of the states Obama has won, will not vote for a democrat, EVER. For example, Nebraska is a red state, so is Wyoming, so is Idaho, so is North Dakota.

  8. lemming, ur wasting ur time. like Hilalry said, “I’m not jumping out of this until the inauguration. And even then, I won’t be gracious.”

    Math doesn’t matter, the facts don’t matter. Doesn’t matter how many white states Barack won, the Clinton forces will never recognize his legitimacy purely because they don’t want to.

    They all think the nomination was “stolen” because the Democratic party is their litter box to do w/ as they please, and their votes simply count more than any fools supporting a black candidate.

    Who’da thunk “feminism” would end its last legs as the willing handmaiden of a resurgent racism, in service to a warmongererer who makes crude jokes about Chelsea Clinton’s parentage, lesbians, and Hillary and Janet Reno (in 1998, when Chelsea was still a minor)?

  9. Loomisnews, I’m sure you don’t think that sexism played any role in this entire process. But that’s besides the point.
    At the end of the day, all the politicians/superdelegates are jumping ship and endorsing Obama because they’re trying to align themselves with who they think is going to win. They’re trying to ensure that they get the political favors if he gets into the office.

    At the end of the day, Obama doesn’t have the experience to the job, and if he even gets into the office it will be a one term deal. His message of change might get him elected, but his inexperience and naiveté will be his undoing. At the end of the day, the person who gets the popular vote in the primary – Hillary Clinton — might not get delegates to win the election. And Obama winning the delegates from traditionally red states is not going to help him much come Election Day. If the campaign comes to Obama vs. McCain, we might as well hand over the keys to the White House to McCain.

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